736 State Highway Y · Ellington, MO 63638

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1975 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious two bedroom starter home, or get away cabin is just minutes away from the Current River Conservation area, and the Current, and Black rivers! Conveniently located on pavement close to everything Ellington has to offer.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#784 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Southern Reynolds County R-II (rural): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #92 of 324 in MO (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Reynolds County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.53%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $32,831
• Equity at exit: $30,104

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $81,736
• Equity at exit: $49,391

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63638

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $198/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2024-07-08
   status Pending 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Spacious two bedroom starter home, or get away cabin is just minutes away from the Current River Conservation area, and the Current, and Black rivers! Conveniently located on pavement close to everything Ellington has to offer.

2. 2023-08-30
   status Pending
3. 2023-08-09
   historical
4. 2023-08-02
   soldstatus Closed 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Spacious two bedroom starter home, or get away cabin is just minutes away from the Current River Conservation area, and the Current, and Black rivers! Conveniently located on pavement close to everything Ellington has to offer.

5. 2023-06-20
   status Pending
6. 2023-06-19
   historical Active Under Contract 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Spacious two bedroom starter home, or get away cabin is just minutes away from the Current River Conservation area, and the Current, and Black rivers! Conveniently located on pavement close to everything Ellington has to offer.

7. 2023-05-26
   listed $59,000 Active 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Spacious two bedroom starter home, or get away cabin is just minutes away from the Current River Conservation area, and the Current, and Black rivers! Conveniently located on pavement close to everything Ellington has to offer.

8. 2023-05-26
   listed $59,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Spacious two bedroom starter home, or get away cabin is just minutes away from the Current River Conservation area, and the Current, and Black rivers! Conveniently located on pavement close to everything Ellington has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $198 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: +$374/yr (+$31/mo · 188.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,546
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$198
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,004
• − Management: −$1,004
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $3,521
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $3,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Reynolds County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2928590
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $35,205
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4195
• State rank: #92 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ellington

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #784
• US rank: #23952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,384

Population outlook (Reynolds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,854 people
• By 2030: 5,521 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 4,841 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 4,167 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 2,906 · -50.4%
• By 2100: 2,165 · -63.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Reynolds

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.3) · D 15.4% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -57.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -68.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.3 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+24.1 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Current HPI: 106.1772
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-07-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-30 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — SOMO
• 2023-08-02 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-06-19 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Listed $59,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Listed $59,000 SOMO

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $198 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.