2870 Riser Rd

Ruston, LA 71270

$125,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-160/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.46%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-160/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (13.9% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#86 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Jackson Parish (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #50 of 98 in LA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jonesboro-Hodge Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #633 of 646 statewide, top 99%, 340 students, 84% FRL); Jonesboro-Hodge Middle School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #192 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 162 students, 77% FRL); Jonesboro-Hodge High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #239 of 265 statewide, top 91%, 228 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 56% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jackson Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 277 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency.
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ruston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($37k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.