403 E Ward St

Refugio, TX 78377

$30,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,107/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $620/mo
• Annual: $7,441/yr
• Cap rate: 31.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.59%
• DSCR: 4.94
• 1% rule: 3.69%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $659 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Refugio H S (math 62% / reading 34%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 216 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.