403 E Ward St · Refugio, TX 78377

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1945 8,333 sqft lot Est $54k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor/Handyman special! Home next door also for sale, can be purchased as a package or separate.

Key facts

• 8,333 sq ft lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (single level implied)
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built in 1945
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first level (15 x 14); Bedroom on the first level (15 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Two total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Refugio H S (math 62% / reading 34%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 216 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $659 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,550 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.59%
• DSCR: 4.94
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,550
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Osage St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,172 (-8%)	9mo	$109,000	$93	67
214 Dunbar St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+7%)	9mo	$45,000	$33	54
210 Swift St	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,152 (-10%)	12mo	$99,900	$87	48
512 N Alamo St Unit A	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+2%)	22mo	$42,500	$33	43
512 N Alamo St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+2%)	22mo	$42,500	$33	43
406 W Commons St	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,088 (-15%)	14mo	$45,900	$42	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $35,700
• Equity at exit: $5,559

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.88×
• Total profit: $83,029
• Equity at exit: $4,497

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78377

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,107 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,013/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $322

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 99-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $30,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,013 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,013 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,013
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,063
• − Management: −$1,063
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $7,440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $5,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Refugio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,181
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5712
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Refugio

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #6003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Refugio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Refugio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,573 people
• By 2030: 7,665 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 7,895 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 8,234 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 9,521 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 10,148 · +34.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 35% Two or more races 25% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Refugio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.9% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.7 2016: R+27.0 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.20%
• Current HPI: 142.4929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $30,000 HARMLS
• 2003-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-02-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,013 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.