405 Keller Ave

Virden, IL 62690

$33,500B

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $822/mo
• Annual: $9,863/yr
• Cap rate: 35.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.14%
• DSCR: 5.68
• 1% rule: 3.98%
• Cash to close: $9,380

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $232 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#975 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.