53 Horseshoe Rd

Pie Town, NM 87829

$135,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,092/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-841/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-841/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (19.1% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $109k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#353 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Quemado Independent Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 29 in NM (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Quemado Elementary (86 students, 58% FRL); Quemado High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 71 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP.
• Catron County population projected at -52% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of replacement
• Major: Interior walls — Exposed and in need of repainting
• Major: Kitchen cabinets — Removed and need replacement
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — Removed and need replacement