53 Horseshoe Rd · Quemado, NM 87829

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2005 Fair condition 29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! Discover the potential of this distinctive property featuring a home, two-story barn, horse stalls, chicken coop, dog run, and storage shed. The property is fully fenced with additional cross-fencing, making it well-suited for animals, projects, or rural living. According to the well summary, the well is 260 feet deep with an estimated production of 10 gallons per minute. Several frost-free water hydrants are located throughout the property, and 200-amp electric service is available at both the house and barn. The home offers solid bones and unique character, presenting a promising opportunity for renovation. The primary bathroom and kitchen have been gutted, allow

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Two story barn
• Horse stalls

Tags

• TWO STORY BARN
• HORSE STALLS
• CHICKEN COOP
• DOG RUN
• STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property suitable for horses with corrals and corral amenities
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Electricity connected; Propane available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story residential property; One level; Located in the Horseshoe Trails subdivision
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding
• Exterior features: Barns; Corrals; Workshop; Fenced yard with wire fencing

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified
• Interior features: Dog run; Irregular lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-841/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#336 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Quemado Independent Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 29 in NM (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Quemado Elementary (86 students, 58% FRL); Quemado High (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 71 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Catron County population projected at -52% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $109,219 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $389,536
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Bridle Path	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,334 (-11%)	1mo	$349,900	$262	50
59 Bridle Path	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,334 (-11%)	1mo	$340,000	$255	50
59 Bridle Path	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,334 (-11%)	1mo	$345,000	$259	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $15,091
• Equity at exit: $64,189

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $56,041
• Equity at exit: $101,725

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87829

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $124,853

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-23	+0% $-70	+5% $-117	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-113	+0% $-70	+5% $-27	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-36	base $-70	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$3,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$763
• After-tax cash flow: $-78/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Extensive rehab

This property presents a significant renovation opportunity with extensive gutting and repairs needed, but offers a unique investment potential with a well-suited rural setting.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of replacement
• Major Interior walls — Exposed and in need of repainting
• Major Kitchen cabinets — Removed and need replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Removed and need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Floor refinishing — Improves living space and adds value
• Both New kitchen cabinets — Updates the kitchen and adds functionality
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls · Exposed and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Removed and need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Removed and need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Floor refinishing — Improves living space and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen cabinets — Updates the kitchen and adds functionality ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quemado Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502130
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 50.00%
• Median HH income: $38,381
• Composite: 41.46/100
• National rank: #3464
• State rank: #10 of 29 in NM

Livability — Quemado

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #26538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 840

Population outlook (Catron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847 people
• By 2030: 2,487 · -12.6%
• By 2040: 1,821 · -36.0%
• By 2050: 1,366 · -52.0%
• By 2075: 909 · -68.1%
• By 2100: 617 · -78.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 17% Lithuanian 15% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Catron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.1) · D 24.2% · R 74.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.8pp · 2024: -50.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.1 2020: R+47.4 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+43.7 2008: R+34.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 98.3591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $135,000 NMMLS