13515 Nederland Dr

Black Forest, CO 80831

$350,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,612/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$231
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-587/mo
• Annual: $-7,038/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.18%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#258 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• El Paso County Colorado School District 49 (urban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 86 in CO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in Black Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.