13515 Nederland Dr · Black Forest, CO 80831

$350,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Land · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 3,117 sqft lot $258/sqft · 17% below area Est $422k · 17% under $231/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Elegant, spacious, and thoughtfully planned, the Cambridge floor plan delivers 1,356 square feet of efficient two-story living with the ideal balance of function and flexibility. This affordable two-story home features three generously sized bedrooms plus a finished lower-level recreation room-perfect for a media space, playroom, or home gym. A large great room creates an inviting open living area centered around the modern kitchen with dining area, complete with an island ideal for everyday living and family gatherings. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and great room, creating a bright, connected living environment. Step outside to the covered deck/patio, offering indoor/outdoor living and entertaining potential. A two-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, and hobbies, with options available to expand to an additional car bay. These two-story floor plans are designed with flexible layouts to fit the way you live today-and grow with you tomorrow.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Covered deck patio
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• LARGE GREAT ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED DECK PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.6% in Black Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#258 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• El Paso County Colorado School District 49 (urban): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #27 of 86 in CO (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $37k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $261,257 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.17%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $421,800
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -17.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-93,609
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-127,849
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80831

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$231
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $-586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,354

Max offer price $265,228

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13432 Stone Valley Dr Peyton, CO	4.0	2.5	1748	$2,395	$1.37	2d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $231 · $2,772/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $350,000 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

   Elegant, spacious, and thoughtfully planned, the Cambridge floor plan delivers 1,356 square feet of efficient two-story living with the ideal balance of function and flexibility. This affordable two-story home features three generously sized bedrooms plus a finished lower-level recreation room-perfect for a media space, playroom, or home gym. A large great room creates an inviting open living area centered around the modern kitchen with dining area, complete with an island ideal for everyday living and family gatherings. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and great room, creating a bright, connected living environment. Step outside to the covered deck/patio, offering indoor/outdoor living and entertaining potential. A two-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, and hobbies, with options available to expand to an additional car bay. These two-story floor plans are designed with flexible layouts to fit the way you live today-and grow with you tomorrow.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $350,000 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

   Elegant, spacious, and thoughtfully planned, the Cambridge floor plan delivers 1,356 square feet of efficient two-story living with the ideal balance of function and flexibility. This affordable two-story home features three generously sized bedrooms plus a finished lower-level recreation room-perfect for a media space, playroom, or home gym. A large great room creates an inviting open living area centered around the modern kitchen with dining area, complete with an island ideal for everyday living and family gatherings. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and great room, creating a bright, connected living environment. Step outside to the covered deck/patio, offering indoor/outdoor living and entertaining potential. A two-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, and hobbies, with options available to expand to an additional car bay. These two-story floor plans are designed with flexible layouts to fit the way you live today-and grow with you tomorrow.

3. 2026-03-14
   listed $387,320 Active 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

   Elegant, spacious, and thoughtfully planned, the Cambridge floor plan delivers 1,356 square feet of efficient two-story living with the ideal balance of function and flexibility. This affordable two-story home features three generously sized bedrooms plus a finished lower-level recreation room-perfect for a media space, playroom, or home gym. A large great room creates an inviting open living area centered around the modern kitchen with dining area, complete with an island ideal for everyday living and family gatherings. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and great room, creating a bright, connected living environment. Step outside to the covered deck/patio, offering indoor/outdoor living and entertaining potential. A two-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, and hobbies, with options available to expand to an additional car bay. These two-story floor plans are designed with flexible layouts to fit the way you live today-and grow with you tomorrow.

4. 2026-03-14
   listed $387,320 Active 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

   Elegant, spacious, and thoughtfully planned, the Cambridge floor plan delivers 1,356 square feet of efficient two-story living with the ideal balance of function and flexibility. This affordable two-story home features three generously sized bedrooms plus a finished lower-level recreation room-perfect for a media space, playroom, or home gym. A large great room creates an inviting open living area centered around the modern kitchen with dining area, complete with an island ideal for everyday living and family gatherings. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and great room, creating a bright, connected living environment. Step outside to the covered deck/patio, offering indoor/outdoor living and entertaining potential. A two-car garage provides ample space for vehicles, storage, and hobbies, with options available to expand to an additional car bay. These two-story floor plans are designed with flexible layouts to fit the way you live today-and grow with you tomorrow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − HOA: −$2,772
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$13,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,174
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Paso County Colorado School District 49
• NCES district ID: 0803870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $75,604
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5210
• State rank: #27 of 86 in CO

Livability — Black Forest

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #19539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: El Paso County · 689,348 people
• City population: 23,358
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 33,912
• Household income: $132,467
• Rent vs Own: 7.8% rent · 92.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 142.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 768,926 people
• By 2030: 815,739 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 903,489 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 981,204 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 1,155,542 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 1,202,070 · +56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.8) · D 43.8% · R 53.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.8 2020: R+10.8 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.34%
• Current HPI: 264.0763
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.09%
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $350,000 IRES
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $350,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $387,320 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $387,320 IRES