11507 Township Road 502

Millersburg, OH 44654

$629,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,368 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,429/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,303
• Tax + insurance: −$831
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-3,005/mo
• Annual: $-36,063/yr
• Cap rate: 0.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.45%
• DSCR: 0.09
• 1% rule: 0.23%
• Cash to close: $176,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $630k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (78.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (77.3% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (78.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#445 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• West Holmes Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #283 of 656 in OH (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nashville Elementary School (102 students, 44% FRL); West Holmes Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #266 of 654 statewide, top 41%, 409 students, 35% FRL); West Holmes High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #343 of 781 statewide, top 47%, 540 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 8 units permitted in Holmes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Holmes County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $630k implies a 687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.