11507 Township Road 502 · Millersburg, OH 44654

$629,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2022

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Western holmes county is a great spot to build a home! Here you go with a nice 5 acre lot that is ready to build. Driveway and colvert in place. Close to West Holmes school, This one has enough room to keep the horse or maybe a 4-H project? Endless possibilities! Bring your blueprints and get busy.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Large decks
• Custom built

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT
• LARGE DECKS
• GRANITE
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PLENTY OF CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $630k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (78.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (77.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (78.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#445 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• West Holmes Local (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #283 of 656 in OH (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nashville Elementary School (102 students, 44% FRL); West Holmes Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #266 of 654 statewide, top 41%, 409 students, 35% FRL); West Holmes High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #343 of 781 statewide, top 47%, 540 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 8 units permitted in Holmes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Holmes County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($611k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $630k implies a 687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $136,408 (78.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.23% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.45%
• DSCR: 0.09
• GRM: 36.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $151,539
• Equity at exit: $567,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $596,554
• Equity at exit: $1,223,757

Cash invested: $176,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44654

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 36.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,303
• Tax from tax record: −$568 /mo · $6,820/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-3,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,233

Max offer price $136,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,649	-5% $-2,827	+0% $-3,005	+5% $-3,184	+10% $-3,362
Rent	-10% $-3,118	-5% $-3,062	+0% $-3,005	+5% $-2,949	+10% $-2,892
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,688	-0.5pp $-2,845	base $-3,005	+0.5pp $-3,169	+1.0pp $-3,335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,475
• Closing costs: $18,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $629,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $629,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $629,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $629,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $629,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $629,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $629,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $629,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $629,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $629,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $629,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $629,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $629,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $629,900 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $629,900 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $629,900 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $629,900 Active 466-char remark
18. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Western holmes county is a great spot to build a home! Here you go with a nice 5 acre lot that is ready to build. Driveway and colvert in place. Close to West Holmes school, This one has enough room to keep the horse or maybe a 4-H project? Endless possibilities! Bring your blueprints and get busy.

19. 2021-04-13
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 2021-03-01
    status Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Western holmes county is a great spot to build a home! Here you go with a nice 5 acre lot that is ready to build. Driveway and colvert in place. Close to West Holmes school, This one has enough room to keep the horse or maybe a 4-H project? Endless possibilities! Bring your blueprints and get busy.

21. 2021-02-22
    status Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Western holmes county is a great spot to build a home! Here you go with a nice 5 acre lot that is ready to build. Driveway and colvert in place. Close to West Holmes school, This one has enough room to keep the horse or maybe a 4-H project? Endless possibilities! Bring your blueprints and get busy.

22. 2021-02-17
    status Pending 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Western holmes county is a great spot to build a home! Here you go with a nice 5 acre lot that is ready to build. Driveway and colvert in place. Close to West Holmes school, This one has enough room to keep the horse or maybe a 4-H project? Endless possibilities! Bring your blueprints and get busy.

23. 2021-01-26
    listed $99,000 Active 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Western holmes county is a great spot to build a home! Here you go with a nice 5 acre lot that is ready to build. Driveway and colvert in place. Close to West Holmes school, This one has enough room to keep the horse or maybe a 4-H project? Endless possibilities! Bring your blueprints and get busy.

24. 2019-02-22
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    A great place to build your new home with extra room for your barn and the horses! A rare find in western Holmes county. . vacant land that is reasonably priced. . Road frontage on a quiet country road but only minutes from West Holmes High school and Millersburg. .

25. 2019-01-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    A great place to build your new home with extra room for your barn and the horses! A rare find in western Holmes county. . vacant land that is reasonably priced. . Road frontage on a quiet country road but only minutes from West Holmes High school and Millersburg. .

26. 2018-09-17
    listed $69,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    A great place to build your new home with extra room for your barn and the horses! A rare find in western Holmes county. . vacant land that is reasonably priced. . Road frontage on a quiet country road but only minutes from West Holmes High school and Millersburg. .

27. 2004-08-03
    soldstatus $34,000
28. 2002-06-11
    soldstatus $26,700
29. 2001-05-17
    soldstatus $26,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,820 · $568/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,323 · $694/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,503/yr (+$125/mo · 22.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,820
• − Insurance: −$3,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$18,324
• Taxable loss: −$49,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,802
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Holmes Local
• NCES district ID: 3904769
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,531
• Composite: 51.57/100
• National rank: #1711
• State rank: #283 of 656 in OH

Livability — Millersburg

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #7306

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Holmes · 38,872 people
• Population (ZIP): 20,329
• Household income: $75,195
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4.3

Population outlook (Holmes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,801 people
• By 2030: 45,021 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 44,857 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 43,040 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 33,122 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 17,241 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Polish 9% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · German/W. Germanic 45%

Political lean MEDSL · Holmes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.2) · D 15.0% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.9pp toward R · 2008: -41.2pp · 2024: -69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.2 2020: R+68.0 2016: R+62.9 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+41.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.03%
• Current HPI: 268.0336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+2277.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $629,900 FSBO.com
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSNOW
• 2021-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-01 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2021-02-22 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2021-02-17 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2021-01-26 Listed $99,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-02-22 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MLSNOW
• 2019-01-17 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2018-09-17 Listed $69,900 MLSNOW
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $26,700 Public Records
• 2001-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,820 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.