5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,152 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 126 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,758/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,389
Tax + insurance
−$442
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$579
Net cashflow
$347/mo
Annual
$4,167/yr
Cap rate
7.87%
Cash-on-cash
5.62%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$74,172
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Portlock Primary (541 students, 93% FRL); Oscar F. Smith High (math 63% / reading 75%, grade B, #170 of 319 statewide, top 55%, 2,291 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 28% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,758/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1301% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-96XVR88NDWHWVX
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29