201 Vinson St

Byron, GA 31008

$209,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-318/mo
• Annual: $-3,811/yr
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (43.5% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (43.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#137 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Peach County (rural): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #141 of 174 in GA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Byron Elementary School (math 25% / reading 27%, grade F, #728 of 1,228 statewide, top 60%, 660 students, 82% FRL); Byron Middle School (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #229 of 470 statewide, top 49%, 449 students, 82% FRL); Peach County High School (math 3% / reading 22%, grade F, #334 of 424 statewide, top 79%, 1,107 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 149 units permitted in Peach County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Peach County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $210k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.