290 Patriot Ln Unit D

Williamsburg, VA 23185

$189,990D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 86 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$290
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $80/mo
• Annual: $957/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $53,197

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($957/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Williamsburg-James City Public School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #36 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matthew Whaley Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 435 students, 72% FRL); Warhill High (math 66% / reading 84%, grade A-, #106 of 319 statewide, top 33%, 1,322 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10 units permitted in Williamsburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamsburg County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.