290 Patriot Ln Unit D · Williamsburg, VA 23185

$189,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1985 $290/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy low-maintenance living in this first-floor condo, ideally located just over a mile from the Williamsburg Outlets. The spacious kitchen offers plenty of room to cook and entertain, while the in-unit washer and dryer add everyday convenience. Nestled near major commuter routes and surrounded by dining, shopping, and entertainment, this home combines comfort with unbeatable accessibility. A perfect blend of style and location!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• First floor condo
• $290 HOA

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR CONDO
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• MAJOR COMMUTER ROUTES
• DINING SHOPPING ENTERTAINMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Neighborhood: PATRIOT LANE CONDOS
• HOA & community: HOA (Patriot Lane Condominiums) with ground maintenance; Monthly HOA fee: $290; Association management: Town Management (757-565-6200)

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned/reserved parking space
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric service
• Home design: Attached condo; Traditional style; One living level; One story; Condo unit on level 1; Foyer entry
• Construction: Slab foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor; Total rooms: 5 (includes foyer)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($957/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Williamsburg-James City Public School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #36 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matthew Whaley Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 435 students, 72% FRL); Warhill High (math 66% / reading 84%, grade A-, #106 of 319 statewide, top 33%, 1,322 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 27% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10 units permitted in Williamsburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamsburg County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,590 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,156
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,637
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23185

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,149/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$290
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,850

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5302 Aden Ct Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1364	$1,700	$1.25	3d	1	0.47mi
5403 Sasha Ct Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,850	$1.31	1d	1	0.51mi
5302 Lane Place Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,675	$1.92	1d	7	0.98mi
5302 Lane Place Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,738	$1.62	17d	5	0.98mi
100 Whitworth Way Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,103	$2.18	1d	14	1.00mi
155 Sterling Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1588	$2,404	$1.51	1d	13	1.16mi
203 Bristol Cmn Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1159	$2,100	$1.81	1d	1	1.17mi
100 Glenburnie Rd Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1198	$2,092	$1.75	1d	20	1.29mi
150 Kings Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1295	$2,846	$2.20	1d	23	1.33mi
1400 Middle St Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	686	$1,565	$2.28	1d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $290 · $3,480/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,990 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $189,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    price $189,990
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $199,990 Active
16. 2025-12-10
    historical
17. 2025-09-30
    historical
18. 2025-09-30
    listed $199,990 Active
19. 2025-09-08
    price $199,990
20. 2025-08-14
    price $209,990
21. 2025-07-02
    listed $214,990 Active
22. 2025-03-10
    listed $215,000 Active
23. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus $152,000 Closed
24. 2022-06-26
    status Pending
25. 2022-06-21
    listed $149,900 Active
26. 2019-05-17
    soldstatus $102,000
27. 2019-05-16
    soldstatus $102,000
28. 2019-04-12
    listed $102,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,149 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$1,149
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − HOA: −$3,480
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,087
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$501
• After-tax cash flow: $1,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg-James City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104020
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,497
• Composite: 56.37/100
• National rank: #1163
• State rank: #36 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, VA
• County: Williamsburg City · 55,270 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,270
• Household income: $105,431
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Williamsburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,784 people
• By 2030: 22,731 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 26,175 · +25.9%
• By 2050: 29,939 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 39,953 · +92.2%
• By 2100: 49,884 · +140.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamsburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.5) · D 71.5% · R 27.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.4pp toward D · 2008: 29.1pp · 2024: 44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.5 2020: D+41.1 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+28.8 2008: D+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 240.1637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+86.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $189,990 REINMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $199,990 REINMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $199,990 REINMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $199,990 REINMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $209,990 REINMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed $214,990 REINMLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $215,000 WMLS
• 2022-08-16 Sold (MLS) $152,000 WMLS
• 2022-06-26 Pending — WMLS
• 2022-06-21 Listed $149,900 WMLS
• 2019-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-16 Sold (MLS) $102,000 WMLS
• 2019-04-12 Listed $102,000 WMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,149 · +23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.