26200 W Sharen Dr

Willow, AK 99688

$185,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $180/mo
• Annual: $2,155/yr
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (13.9% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $159k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $760 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-519 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Susitna Valley High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 221 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 33% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.