26200 W Sharen Dr · Willow, AK 99688

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,567 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2013 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Drive to the end of the road, fire up the wood stove (or the whole-house boiler with radiant floor heat!), and settle in with views of Denali from your bedroom window. This barely-off-grid home is just a short distance off the Parks Highway in Willow, pn two flat, dry, highly usable lots, with a one-car garage. Built in 2013, it's been lived in both full-time and used as a weekend getaway, and is great for both. There's an inverter and batteries that can power the house for multiple days after a charge from the generator, and the system is solar-ready if you want to install panels in the future. With a propane fridge, washer, and range, as well as a drilled well and documented septic, this

Key facts

• Radiant floor heat
• Solar ready
• Wood stove

Tags

• VIEWS OF DENALI
• WOOD STOVE
• RADIANT FLOOR HEAT
• SOLAR READY
• PROPANE FRIDGE
• DRILLED WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached; Built in 2013
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Horse property; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Ceiling fan(s); Soaking tub; Vaulted ceilings; Wood stove; Bedroom and bathroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in Willow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#86 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Elementary (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #22 of 156 statewide, top 14%, 135 students, 65% FRL); Susitna Valley High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 221 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 33% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 215 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $760 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-519 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $159,376 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,498
• Equity at exit: $51,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $38,934
• Equity at exit: $59,442

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99688

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,594 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $387/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 234.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$387
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$992
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$238
• After-tax cash flow: $2,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Willow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #19315

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow, AK
• City population: 2,542
• Population (ZIP): 2,542

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Current HPI: 168.6582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $185,000 AKMLS
• 2025-11-07 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $195,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $205,000 AKMLS
• 2023-04-05 Pending — AKMLS
• 2023-03-17 Listed $185,000 AKMLS
• 2006-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $387 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.