17 Squirrel Holw

Sierra City, CA 96125

$279,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1963 · Other · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,592/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-413/mo
• Annual: $-4,962/yr
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (42.9% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#527 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra-Plumas Joint Unified (rural): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #735 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Sierra County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sierra County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.