173 Mandrake Court, Unit 106 Ct

Gasburg, VA 27842

$239,900D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 540 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 308 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,741/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-172/mo
• Annual: $-2,063/yr
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#345 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northampton County Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #176 of 178 in NC (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northampton County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #530 of 535 statewide, top 99%, 240 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northampton County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.1% in Gasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?