173 Mandrake Court, Unit 106 Ct · Gasburg, VA 27842

$239,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1997 871 sqft lot ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This three-story WATERFRONT townhome is an excellent investment opportunity, whether you are looking for a personal vacation home, a long-term rental, or a short-term Airbnb. The property is move-in ready and priced to sell. You will enjoy lakefront living from every level, featuring balconies on the main and top floors, plus a walk-out patio on the lower level. Recent Upgrades include: the roof was replaced in 2022, and new flooring was installed throughout the living, dining, and kitchen areas, as well as the staircase, in October 2025. While the property does not include a boat house, a Public Wildlife Landing is located just minutes away. Water and sewer are serviced through a community

Key facts

• Lakefront property
• Waterfront view
• Waterfront townhome

Tags

• WATERFRONT TOWNHOME
• WATERFRONT VIEW
• BALCONY ON MAIN LEVEL
• BALCONY ON TOP FLOOR
• PATIO ON BOTTOM LEVEL
• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: DSL/Cable available

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Other sewer type
• Home design: Residential townhouse/condo; Two levels; On waterfront; Has view
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with finished space above and below grade
• Exterior features: Balcony; Front porch; Rear porch; Deck; Patio; Waterfront lot with lake view; Gravel road/drive

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Finished full basement with walk-out access; 7 total rooms; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.1% in Gasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#345 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northampton County Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #176 of 178 in NC (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northampton County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #530 of 535 statewide, top 99%, 240 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Northampton County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,057 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $12,247
• Equity at exit: $101,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $66,092
• Equity at exit: $152,428

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27842

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,267/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,958

Max offer price $209,529

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,900 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,900 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,900 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 296 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 295 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 292 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 291 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 290 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 289 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,900 Active 288 DOM
18. 2026-04-07
    price $239,900
19. 2026-03-11
    price $269,900
20. 2026-02-16
    price $299,900
21. 2026-01-06
    price $309,500
22. 2025-10-24
    price $334,900
23. 2025-08-16
    listed $339,900 Active
24. 2025-07-16
    price $344,500
25. 2025-01-09
    listed $369,900 Active
26. 2024-12-13
    price $390,000
27. 2024-11-29
    status Active
28. 2024-09-27
    status Pending
29. 2024-03-02
    listed $395,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,267 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,267 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,267
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,339
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $-542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703420
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,548
• Composite: 13.24/100
• National rank: #9551
• State rank: #176 of 178 in NC

Livability — Gasburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #13729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,439

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,395 people
• By 2030: 15,794 · -9.2%
• By 2040: 12,810 · -26.4%
• By 2050: 10,488 · -39.7%
• By 2075: 7,778 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 7,019 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 24% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.5) · D 57.0% · R 42.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 30.4pp · 2024: 14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.5 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Current HPI: 192.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-39.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $239,900 RVLG
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $269,900 RVLG
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $299,900 RVLG
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $309,500 RVLG
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $334,900 RVLG
• 2025-08-16 Listed $339,900 RVLG
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $344,500 RVLG
• 2025-01-09 Listed $369,900 RVLG
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $390,000 RVLG
• 2024-11-29 Relisted — RVLG
• 2024-09-27 Pending — RVLG
• 2024-03-02 Listed $395,000 RVLG

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,267 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.