7617 Nightfall Dr

Denton, TX 76210

$319,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,992 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,540/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$770
• HOA: −$28
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-465/mo
• Annual: $-5,575/yr
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (20.4% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $319k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.