7617 Nightfall Dr · Denton, TX 76210

$319,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2001 7,418 sqft lot $160/sqft · 16% below area Est $382k · 16% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bonus: A 100-day home warranty is included for added peace of mind. This well-kept home offers an open-concept layout filled with natural light, high ceilings, and a kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living area—perfect for entertaining or pretending you cooked while everyone hangs out nearby. Out back, enjoy a private yard featuring a custom deck and a mature pecan tree—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or impressing guests with “yes, that’s our tree.” All of this in a prime Denton location close to shopping, dining, and major highways—because long commutes are overrated.

Key facts

• Mature pecan tree
• Private yard
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE YARD
• CUSTOM DECK
• MATURE PECAN TREE
• PRIME DENTON LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $319k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,931 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.24%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,558
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -16.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7617 Nightfall Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,992 (0%)	0mo	$319,000	$160	100
7620 Waterside Pl	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,002 (+0%)	6mo	$385,000	$192	88
917 Circle View Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,935 (-3%)	1mo	$349,500	$181	73
8213 Winding Stream Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,868 (-6%)	2mo	$310,000	$166	67
8212 Canoe Ridge Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+5%)	2mo	$359,000	$172	64
8209 Winding Stream Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+5%)	10mo	$369,990	$177	58
6008 Thistle Way	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+5%)	7mo	$450,000	$214	53
1613 White Dove Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	2,175 (+9%)	9mo	$369,500	$170	51
1200 Rambling Brook Trl	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,086 (+5%)	8mo	$295,000	$141	50
7912 Hidden Path Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,136 (+7%)	7mo	$305,000	$143	49
8704 Serenity Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-15%)	2mo	$299,900	$176	40
4517 Chicory Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,807 (-9%)	8mo	$349,000	$193	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-86,531
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-134,045
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76210

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,540 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,645/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,128

Max offer price $236,931

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7900 Canoe Ridge Ln Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2609	$2,425	$0.93	22d	1	0.32mi
7016 Raintree Way Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,400	$1.18	11d	1	0.38mi
7016 Raintree Way Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	2038	$2,400	$1.18	24d	1	0.38mi
1316 White Dove Ln Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2611	$3,495	$1.34	1d	1	0.41mi
7905 Seven Oaks Ln Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1984	$2,150	$1.08	43d	1	0.51mi
7900 Hidden Path Ln Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	2136	$2,295	$1.07	43d	1	0.57mi
8401 Swan Park Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,050	$1.10	44d	1	0.79mi
1513 Larson Ln Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,900	$1.45	2d	1	0.80mi
4405 Chicory Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	2223	$2,395	$1.08	24d	1	0.82mi
3901 Montecito Dr Unit 2016 Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1523	$4,000	$2.63	43d	1	0.84mi
3901 Montecito Dr Unit 1007 Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	2214	$5,000	$2.26	17d	1	0.84mi
1508 Hamlisch Ave Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	2156	$2,850	$1.32	18d	1	0.85mi
204 Red Fox Ln Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	2210	$2,700	$1.22	43d	1	0.98mi
8133 Montecito Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1701	$2,125	$1.25	6d	1	1.00mi
2700 Cedar Creek Ln Denton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,959	$1.98	2d	19	1.26mi
2920 Groveland Ct Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,900	$1.51	12d	1	1.30mi
2416 Wildwood Ln Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,925	$1.20	43d	1	1.32mi
3305 Ocean Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2541	$2,595	$1.02	17d	1	1.43mi
3119 Breton Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	7d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Option Contract 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Bonus: A 100-day home warranty is included for added peace of mind. This well-kept home offers an open-concept layout filled with natural light, high ceilings, and a kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living area—perfect for entertaining or pretending you cooked while everyone hangs out nearby. Out back, enjoy a private yard featuring a custom deck and a mature pecan tree—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or impressing guests with “yes, that’s our tree.” All of this in a prime Denton location close to shopping, dining, and major highways—because long commutes are overrated.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $319,000 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Bonus: A 100-day home warranty is included for added peace of mind. This well-kept home offers an open-concept layout filled with natural light, high ceilings, and a kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living area—perfect for entertaining or pretending you cooked while everyone hangs out nearby. Out back, enjoy a private yard featuring a custom deck and a mature pecan tree—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or impressing guests with “yes, that’s our tree.” All of this in a prime Denton location close to shopping, dining, and major highways—because long commutes are overrated.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $326,000 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Bonus: A 100-day home warranty is included for added peace of mind. This well-kept home offers an open-concept layout filled with natural light, high ceilings, and a kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living area—perfect for entertaining or pretending you cooked while everyone hangs out nearby. Out back, enjoy a private yard featuring a custom deck and a mature pecan tree—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or impressing guests with “yes, that’s our tree.” All of this in a prime Denton location close to shopping, dining, and major highways—because long commutes are overrated.

4. 2026-03-21
   listed $350,000 Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Bonus: A 100-day home warranty is included for added peace of mind. This well-kept home offers an open-concept layout filled with natural light, high ceilings, and a kitchen that flows seamlessly into the living area—perfect for entertaining or pretending you cooked while everyone hangs out nearby. Out back, enjoy a private yard featuring a custom deck and a mature pecan tree—perfect for relaxing, grilling, or impressing guests with “yes, that’s our tree.” All of this in a prime Denton location close to shopping, dining, and major highways—because long commutes are overrated.

5. 2026-02-12
   soldstatus
6. 2004-05-18
   soldstatus $138,000
7. 2004-05-12
   soldstatus 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   ANXIOUS SELLERS HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED THE PRICE OF THIS HOME FOR A QUICK SALE, NONE OTHER AT THIS AGE & SUZE FOR THIS PRICE. THIS IS A BEAUTIFUL HOME. HURRY! THIS ONE WON'T LAST.

8. 2004-04-20
   listed $137,000 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   ANXIOUS SELLERS HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED THE PRICE OF THIS HOME FOR A QUICK SALE, NONE OTHER AT THIS AGE & SUZE FOR THIS PRICE. THIS IS A BEAUTIFUL HOME. HURRY! THIS ONE WON'T LAST.

9. 2004-04-20
   historical 188-char remark

   Show marketing remark (188 chars)

   ANXIOUS SELLERS HAVE DRASTICALLY REDUCED THE PRICE OF THIS HOME FOR A QUICK SALE, NONE OTHER AT THIS AGE & SUZE FOR THIS PRICE. THIS IS A BEAUTIFUL HOME. HURRY! THIS ONE WON'T LAST.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,645 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,645 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$7,645
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,438
• − Management: −$2,438
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$11,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,905/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,610
• Household income: $113,980
• Rent vs Own: 24.2% rent · 75.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.55%
• Current HPI: 257.9844
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+132.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $319,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $326,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $350,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2004-04-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-04-20 Listed $137,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,645 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.