518 Northlawn Dr

Houston, TX 77073

$170,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-725/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-725/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (0.6% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $23 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ralph Eickenroht El (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 543 students, 94% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $170k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?