518 Northlawn Dr · Houston, TX 77073

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1982 7,148 sqft lot Est $206k · 17% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is being sold as-is and offers tremendous potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to create an income-producing rental property or customize your first home, this property could be the perfect fit. Originally a 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage, it now includes a partial garage conversion that provides an additional room while maintaining space for one car. Conveniently located just 15 minutes from Houston’s international airport, this property offers easy access to major highways, shopping, and employment centers. With a little vision and renovation, this could be a fantastic opportunity to add value and make it your own!

Key facts

• Additional room
• 7,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PARTIAL GARAGE CONVERSION
• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-725/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ralph Eickenroht El (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,927 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 543 students, 94% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Andy Dekaney H S (math 5% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,599 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 2,401 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 66% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $170k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,328 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Northlawn Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,328 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$128	94
16011 N Sky Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,364 (+3%)	1mo	$227,000	$166	84
502 N Rock Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,225 (-8%)	2mo	$190,000	$155	78
16206 Villa Del Norte Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,169 (-12%)	2mo	$185,000	$158	69
16006 N Sky Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (-8%)	14mo	$199,000	$163	64
631 Northlawn Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,468 (+10%)	14mo	$219,900	$150	58
20919 New Leaf Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (+14%)	4mo	$235,000	$155	54
15915 Northtrace Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+12%)	17mo	$185,000	$125	50
518 N Willow Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,440 (+8%)	14mo	$205,000	$142	48
1014 Northside Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,521 (+14%)	11mo	$230,000	$151	41
16710 Vista Oak Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,163 (-12%)	17mo	$180,000	$155	37
1223 Spring Apple Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+11%)	11mo	$199,995	$135	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,843
• Equity at exit: $43,678

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,433
• Equity at exit: $48,157

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,742/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $159,328

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-12	+0% $-60	+5% $-109	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-127	+0% $-60	+5% $6	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-17	base $-60	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1430 Great Easton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,825	$1.16	0d	1	0.85mi
920 Century Plaza Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1350	$1,199	$0.89	1d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-06
   price $170,000
4. 2025-11-06
   listed $190,000 Active
5. 2022-02-24
   soldstatus
6. 2007-10-16
   listed $1,150
7. 2007-10-16
   historical
8. 2004-06-14
   soldstatus
9. 2003-09-23
   soldstatus
10. 1997-08-18
    soldstatus $63,441
11. 1997-08-01
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,742 · $395/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$4,742
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$835
• After-tax cash flow: $111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+220.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-10-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-10-16 Listed $1,150 HARMLS
• 2004-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $63,441 Public Records
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,742 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.