354 Manhattan Dr #14

Burlington, VT 05401

$250,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,660/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$565
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,271/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Integrated Arts Academy At H. O. Wheeler (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #72 of 192 statewide, top 42%, 248 students, 58% FRL); Lyman C. Hunt Middle School (math 34% / reading 47%, grade F, #13 of 26 statewide, top 52%, 337 students, 49% FRL); Burlington High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #8 of 48 statewide, top 15%, 987 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $250k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,660/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2757% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?