354 Manhattan Dr #14 · Burlington, VT 05401

$250,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2007 $565/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable housing in the city. Unit includes one garage parking space. 1 cat or 1 small to med. dog allowed. Assoc. fees incl. gas usage for gas dryer, hot water and heat. Secured entrance with intercom. Seller to contribute $3,000 towards the purchasers closing cost.

Key facts

• Deeded garage space
• Spacious closets
• Large living room

Tags

• DEEDED GARAGE SPACE
• FULLY-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS CLOSETS
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Riverside Avenue to Oak Street to left on Manhattan Drive. Building on right.
• HOA & community: Condo fees (monthly); HOA covers building maintenance and master insurance; Indoor storage available; Common acreage; Snow removal and trash removal provided

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers (Burlington Electric); VGS fuel service; Cable available; Internet availability unknown
• Home design: Top-floor unit with a flat architectural style; Beige exterior
• Construction: Built in 2007; Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Unit/lot number 14
• Exterior features: Condo development; Near shopping; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric stove; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Baseboard heat
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Basement with interior access and assigned storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in VT, #4,619 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Zoned schools: Integrated Arts Academy At H. O. Wheeler (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #72 of 192 statewide, top 42%, 248 students, 58% FRL); Lyman C. Hunt Middle School (math 34% / reading 47%, grade F, #13 of 26 statewide, top 52%, 337 students, 49% FRL); Burlington High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #8 of 48 statewide, top 15%, 987 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 138 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,660/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2757% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $162k; list at $250k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $231,282 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-53,401
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-79,119
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05401

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,724/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$565
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,794

Max offer price $231,282

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-35	+0% $-106	+5% $-177	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-211	+0% $-106	+5% $-1	+10% $104
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-42	base $-106	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
93 Walnut St #5 Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0	950	$3,000	$3.16	45d	1	0.05mi
170 Park St Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0	896	$2,900	$3.24	45d	1	0.41mi
372-374 North St Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0	1080	$2,880	$2.67	45d	1	0.50mi
150 North Ave Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	45d	1	0.54mi
135 North Ave Unit 135 Burlington, VT	3.0	2.0	1090	$2,800	$2.57	45d	1	0.56mi
52 Isham St Unit 2 Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0	1065	$3,050	$2.86	45d	1	0.61mi
8 S Union St Unit 1 Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	23d	1	0.72mi
375 North Ave Apt 310 Burlington, VT	1.0	1.0	570	$2,100	$3.68	45d	1	0.72mi
70 Cambrian Way Burlington, VT	1.0	1.0	685	$2,750	$4.01	23d	14	0.72mi
125 Cambrian Way Burlington, VT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$4,050	$3.52	23d	6	0.75mi
37 S Willard St Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0	900	$2,625	$2.92	45d	1	0.82mi
79 Pine St Burlington, VT	1.0	1.0	979	$4,600	$4.70	23d	1	0.87mi
288 Main St Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	712	$2,000	$2.81	45d	1	0.99mi
131 Main St Burlington, VT	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	685	$2,500	$3.65	23d	1	1.00mi
267 Hildred Dr Burlington, VT	2.0	1.0	820	$2,450	$2.99	23d	1	1.03mi
94 Malletts Bay Ave Unit 1A Winooski, VT	3.0	1.0	984	$2,595	$2.64	23d	1	1.14mi
101 Union St Unit 1A Winooski, VT	3.0	1.0	1046	$2,895	$2.77	23d	1	1.18mi
12 North St Unit A Winooski, VT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	45d	1	1.22mi
20 W Canal St Winooski, VT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$2,700	$2.42	45d	1	1.28mi
304 S Winooski Ave Burlington, VT	3.0	2.0	780	$2,950	$3.78	45d	1	1.31mi
23 Weaver Ln Unit 1A Winooski, VT	2.0	1.0	767	$1,500	$1.96	23d	1	1.42mi
25 Winooski Falls Way Winooski, VT	2.0–8.0	1.0–2.0	822	$850	$1.03	23d	11	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $565 · $6,780/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    listed $250,000 Active
20. 2025-06-17
    price $260,000
21. 2008-06-23
    soldstatus $161,900
22. 2008-06-20
    soldstatus $161,900 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Affordable housing in the city. Unit includes one garage parking space. 1 cat or 1 small to med. dog allowed. Assoc. fees incl. gas usage for gas dryer, hot water and heat. Secured entrance with intercom. Seller to contribute $3,000 towards the purchasers closing cost.

23. 2007-10-15
    listed $164,900 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Affordable housing in the city. Unit includes one garage parking space. 1 cat or 1 small to med. dog allowed. Assoc. fees incl. gas usage for gas dryer, hot water and heat. Secured entrance with intercom. Seller to contribute $3,000 towards the purchasers closing cost.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,737 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,013/yr (+$84/mo · 37.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,724
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
• − Management: −$2,553
• − HOA: −$6,780
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,220
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,253
• After-tax cash flow: $-19/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, VT
• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 31,662
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 31,662
• Household income: $65,657
• Rent vs Own: 68.6% rent · 31.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2757.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -316.87%
• Current HPI: 352.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+51.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $250,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $260,000 PrimeMLS
• 2008-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $161,900 Public Records
• 2008-06-20 Sold (MLS) $161,900 PrimeMLS
• 2007-10-15 Listed $164,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,724 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.