326 Keese Mills Rd

Paul Smiths, NY 12970

$165,000C-

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · Built 1921 · Other · Active · 387 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $177/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($177/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (17.4% below list).
• It's been on market 387 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#1,190 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Saranac Lake Central School District (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #497 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saranac Lake Middle School (math 18% / reading 45%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 275 students, 42% FRL); Saranac Lake Senior High School (math 98% / reading 90%, grade A+, #124 of 1,100 statewide, top 12%, 385 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Saranac Lake Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 387 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.