326 Keese Mills Rd · Paul Smiths, NY 12970

$165,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · Other public records · 387 Days on market

Built 1921 0.50 ac lot $74/sqft · 60% below area Est $232k · 29% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Separate rental unit
• Lush trails

Tags

• ADIRONDACK RETREAT
• QUIET STREET
• CRYSTAL-CLEAR LAKES
• LUSH TRAILS
• WINTER WONDERLAND
• SEPARATE RENTAL UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($177/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#1,190 in NY) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Saranac Lake Central School District (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #497 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saranac Lake Middle School (math 18% / reading 45%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 275 students, 42% FRL); Saranac Lake Senior High School (math 98% / reading 90%, grade A+, #124 of 1,100 statewide, top 12%, 385 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Saranac Lake Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 387 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,370 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 387 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,331
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -28.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $32,220
• Equity at exit: $86,349

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $100,023
• Equity at exit: $143,422

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12970

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,542/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $61	+0% $15	+5% $-32	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $-39	+0% $15	+5% $69	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $57	base $15	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 387 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 386 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 384 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 383 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 382 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 381 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 379 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 378 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 375 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 374 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 373 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 372 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 369 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 368 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 367 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 366 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    status Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

18. 2026-03-02
    historical 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

19. 2025-11-14
    price $165,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

20. 2025-10-24
    price $185,000 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

21. 2025-09-15
    status Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

22. 2025-08-06
    status Pending 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

23. 2025-04-01
    listed $199,000 Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (857 chars)

    Welcome to your affordable Adirondack retreat! This 4-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of convenience and tranquility, nestled on a quiet street just moments from Paul Smith's College. Situated in the heart of the Adirondacks, imagine spending your summers exploring crystal-clear lakes and hiking through lush trails, or embracing the winter wonderland with skiing, ice fishing, and cozy evenings by the crackling fireplace. Whether you envision it as a rental property or a permanent residence, this property presents an opportunity to bring your vision to life. While the second structure on the property requires some attention, it offers the potential for additional living space or a separate rental unit. Please note that the property is being sold as-is, allowing you to personalize it to your liking and make it truly your own.

24. 2024-08-15
    price $215,000
25. 2024-06-22
    price $220,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,542 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,165 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$623/yr (+$52/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,542
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,309
• − Management: −$1,309
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saranac Lake Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625740
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,434
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4856
• State rank: #497 of 590 in NY

Livability — Paul Smiths

• Score: 38/100
• State rank: #1190
• US rank: #27527

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,022

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Chinese 2% Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Current HPI: 272.1618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2026-03-02 Delisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $165,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $185,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-09-15 Relisted — ACVMLS
• 2025-08-06 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $199,000 ACVMLS
• 2024-08-15 Price Changed $215,000 ACVMLS
• 2024-06-22 Price Changed $220,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,542 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.