698 E Goeth St

Lueders, TX 79533

$97,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,711 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $272/mo
• Annual: $3,263/yr
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.02%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $27,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,437 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lueders-Avoca ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,066 of 1,141 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.