698 E Goeth St · Lueders, TX 79533

$97,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,711 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1948 0.52 ac lot $57/sqft · 90% above area ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

So much potential large rooms hardwood floors. House on 2 lots Nice Shop with electricity extra carport in front of shop.

Key facts

• Large rooms
• 2 lots
• Extra carport

Tags

• LARGE ROOMS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• 2 LOTS
• SHOP WITH ELECTRICITY
• EXTRA CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,437 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lueders-Avoca ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,066 of 1,141 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,270 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.02%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,142
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: 89.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
242 E Hamilton St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,718 (+0%)	0mo	$120,000	$70	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $29,043
• Equity at exit: $43,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $79,183
• Equity at exit: $67,217

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79533

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $887

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    price $97,000 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    So much potential large rooms hardwood floors. House on 2 lots Nice Shop with electricity extra carport in front of shop.

18. 2026-02-28
    listed $110,000 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    So much potential large rooms hardwood floors. House on 2 lots Nice Shop with electricity extra carport in front of shop.

19. 2000-08-16
    soldstatus
20. 1995-06-22
    soldstatus
21. 1992-01-30
    soldstatus
22. 1988-03-15
    soldstatus
23. 1988-03-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $1,851
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$444
• After-tax cash flow: $2,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lueders-Avoca ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828530
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,586
• Composite: 24.7/100
• National rank: #13036
• State rank: #1066 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Lueders

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1437
• US rank: #24543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lueders, TX
• Population (ZIP): 525

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,845 people
• By 2030: 20,213 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 21,446 · +8.1%
• By 2050: 22,499 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 23,272 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 20,420 · +2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.2) · D 13.1% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -46.1pp · 2024: -73.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.2 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+46.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $97,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2000-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,824 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.