827 W Raymond St

Harrisburg, IL 62946

$55,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · Built 1910 · Other · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,062/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $346/mo
• Annual: $4,151/yr
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.96%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#309 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrisburg CUSD 3 (town): math 5% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #521 of 620 in IL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.
• Saline County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.5% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.