11936 California 178 #61

Mountain Mesa, CA 93240

$78,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $607/mo
• Annual: $7,281/yr
• Cap rate: 15.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.34%
• DSCR: 2.48
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,092 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.