11936 California 178 #61 · Mountain Mesa, CA 93240

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition 5.23 ac lot Est $70k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming Turn-Key Mobile Home Near Lake Isabella - Fully Furnished & Income-Producing Opportunity! Welcome to this beautiful and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in the desirable community of Mountain Mesa, just minutes from the scenic shores of Lake Isabella. Currently operating as a successful Airbnb, this property offers an excellent opportunity for investors, vacation homeowners, or anyone seeking a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. The seller is including all furniture, furnishings, and electronics, making this a truly turn-key property ready for immediate use or continued short-term rental income. Enjoy a comfortable and inviting floor plan, cozy li

Key facts

• 5.23 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $607 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,092 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.34%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,720
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6022 Maple Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	12mo	$79,900	$83	53
12201 Highway 178 #14	0.28mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	10mo	$55,000	$76	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $59,120
• Equity at exit: $46,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.61×
• Total profit: $144,286
• Equity at exit: $83,094

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $661	-5% $634	+0% $607	+5% $580	+10% $553
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $549	+0% $607	+5% $664	+10% $721
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $627	base $607	+0.5pp $587	+1.0pp $566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 695-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $78,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $6,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $5,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is ready for immediate use and has a good curb appeal. The most impactful updates would be to paint the exterior trim and replace the carpet.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mountain Mesa

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1092
• US rank: #25418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Mesa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $78,000 AVMLS