916-920 Clay St

San Francisco, CA 94108

$1,388,000A-

None bd · 1.0 ba · 3,681 sqft · Built 1907 · MultiFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,727/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,279
• Tax + insurance: −$1,835
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,723
• Net cashflow: $4,891/mo
• Annual: $58,690/yr
• Cap rate: 10.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.10%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $388,640

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.39M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.39M).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.30M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.30M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $97k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $87k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.3%/yr); 28 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $795k; list at $1.39M implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $389k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $17,727/mo this rent would consume 325% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?