10208 Neptune Ct

Waco, TX 76708

$293,465D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,076 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,452/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-111/mo
• Annual: $-1,333/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $82,170

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $293k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (16.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $245k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China Spring El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 677 students, 36% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the China Spring ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — The exterior siding is only partially installed, indicating significant work is needed to complete the exterior.
• Major: Interior finishes — The interior is completely unfinished, requiring extensive work to complete the living spaces.
• Major: Flooring — Flooring is not yet installed in any room, requiring significant work to complete the living spaces.
• Major: Systems — No systems are installed or operational in the home, requiring significant work to complete the living spaces and ensure functionality.
• Minor: Landscaping — Minimal landscaping is present, which can be improved with additional plants and landscaping features.
• Minor: Fencing — The fencing is only partially installed, which can be completed with additional fencing posts and panels. The independent image shows a partially installed fence, while the listing photo shows a fully installed fence. This discrepancy suggests the fence may be newly installed or partially completed between the independent and listing photos.