19 Widgeon Ct

Savannah, GA 31302

$105,420B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1995 · Land · Under Contract · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,387/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$553
• Tax + insurance: −$734
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $598/mo
• Annual: $7,179/yr
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.66%
• DSCR: 2.85
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $29,518

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $598 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $729 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#1 in GA, #397 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment D.
• Savannah-Chatham County (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #134 of 174 in GA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bloomingdale Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 362 students, 67% FRL); West Chatham Middle School (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #417 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 953 students, 72% FRL); New Hampstead High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #254 of 424 statewide, top 61%, 1,436 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 94% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,694 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (973 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chatham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 201% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 4.0% in Savannah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.