209 Lajodepa St

Grand Saline, TX 75140

$175,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,239 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-957/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-957/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.3% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#800 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grand Saline ISD (town): math 38% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #520 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grand Saline El (308 students, 68% FRL); Grand Saline Middle (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 273 students, 59% FRL); Grand Saline H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 341 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Grand Saline — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.