24 Birch Way

Valley Falls, NY 12185

$82,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,164/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$575
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-222/mo
• Annual: $-2,665/yr
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.61%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $50k (39.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#591 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Brunswick Central School District (Brittonkill) (rural): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #285 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.