24 Birch Way · Valley Falls, NY 12185

$82,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $575/mo HOA · 49% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated Sellers!!! Turnkey trailer available in scenic Pittstown. Built in 2022, this home features a spacious living room and kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances and vinyl flooring. Two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space. The property is located in the Country Acres Manufactured Home Community. The lot rent covers water, sewer, garbage, and taxes, making it an ideal opportunity for those seeking a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle. Less than a 30-minute drive to Bennington, VT, and Grafton Lakes State Park. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Built 2022
• Listed 92 days

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL FLOORING
• 30-MINUTE DRIVE TO BENNINGTON
• GRAFTON LAKES STATE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $50k (39.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#591 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Brunswick Central School District (Brittonkill) (rural): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #285 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 49% of rent.

Recommended offer $49,861 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.61%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $16,798
• Equity at exit: $58,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $60,013
• Equity at exit: $113,778

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12185

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$102 /mo · $1,230/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$575
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,445

Max offer price $49,861

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $575 · $6,900/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $82,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $89,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Motivated Sellers!!! Turnkey trailer available in scenic Pittstown. Built in 2022, this home features a spacious living room and kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances and vinyl flooring. Two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space. The property is located in the Country Acres Manufactured Home Community. The lot rent covers water, sewer, garbage, and taxes, making it an ideal opportunity for those seeking a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle. Less than a 30-minute drive to Bennington, VT, and Grafton Lakes State Park. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-04-07
    price $94,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Motivated Sellers!!! Turnkey trailer available in scenic Pittstown. Built in 2022, this home features a spacious living room and kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances and vinyl flooring. Two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space. The property is located in the Country Acres Manufactured Home Community. The lot rent covers water, sewer, garbage, and taxes, making it an ideal opportunity for those seeking a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle. Less than a 30-minute drive to Bennington, VT, and Grafton Lakes State Park. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-03-18
    listed $99,000 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Motivated Sellers!!! Turnkey trailer available in scenic Pittstown. Built in 2022, this home features a spacious living room and kitchen equipped with stainless steel appliances and vinyl flooring. Two nicely sized bedrooms with ample closet space. The property is located in the Country Acres Manufactured Home Community. The lot rent covers water, sewer, garbage, and taxes, making it an ideal opportunity for those seeking a comfortable, low-maintenance lifestyle. Less than a 30-minute drive to Bennington, VT, and Grafton Lakes State Park. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,230
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − HOA: −$6,900
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable loss: −$3,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$908
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is turnkey and ready for move-in, with minor cosmetic updates that could further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick Central School District (Brittonkill)
• NCES district ID: 3605520
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,321
• Composite: 48.5/100
• National rank: #2123
• State rank: #285 of 590 in NY

Livability — Valley Falls

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #591
• US rank: #10728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,699

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.38%
• Current HPI: 301.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $89,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $94,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $99,000 HVCRMLS