42632 W Colter St

Tonopah, AZ 85354

$153,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $613/mo
• Annual: $7,359/yr
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.18%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $42,840

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $151k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#400 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tonopah Valley High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 785 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.4% in Tonopah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.