811 Van Ambridge Aly

Wilmington, NC 28401

$150,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,489/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $298/mo
• Annual: $3,581/yr
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.53%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.7% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A H Snipes Academy of Arts/Des (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 377 students, 99% FRL); Williston Middle (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #402 of 475 statewide, top 85%, 683 students, 100% FRL); John T Hoggard High (math 66% / reading 75%, grade B+, #117 of 535 statewide, top 22%, 2,226 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 42% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the New Hanover County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.6% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.