811 Van Ambridge Aly · Wilmington, NC 28401

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1950 2,614 sqft lot Est $228k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity!! Located in the booming Castle Street District.

Key facts

• 2,614 sq ft lot
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.6% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#142 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A H Snipes Academy of Arts/Des (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 377 students, 99% FRL); Williston Middle (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #402 of 475 statewide, top 85%, 683 students, 100% FRL); John T Hoggard High (math 66% / reading 75%, grade B+, #117 of 535 statewide, top 22%, 2,226 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 42% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the New Hanover County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,904 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.53%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $227,808
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Fullwood St	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	641 (-5%)	12mo	$125,000	$195	74
507 S 6th St	0.19mi	2/1.0	698 (+4%)	13mo	$270,000	$387	74
221 S 11th St	0.38mi	2/1.0	703 (+5%)	2mo	$140,000	$199	73
209 Queen St	0.47mi	2/1.0	717 (+7%)	2mo	$242,000	$338	66
614 S 13th St	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	603 (-10%)	11mo	$219,000	$363	54
1006 S 4th St	0.48mi	2/1.0	702 (+4%)	20mo	$248,000	$353	53
1402 Nun St	0.48mi	2/1.0	707 (+5%)	21mo	$242,000	$342	52
1114 S 6th St	0.49mi	1/1.0 (-1)	655 (-2%)	20mo	$240,000	$366	51
119 S 12th St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	767 (+14%)	2mo	$171,500	$224	46
714 S 16th St	0.57mi	2/1.0	747 (+11%)	14mo	$133,000	$178	43
1211 Castle St	0.31mi	2/1.0	767 (+14%)	23mo	$260,000	$339	43
926 S 2nd St	0.59mi	2/1.0	768 (+14%)	12mo	$220,000	$286	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,736
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,171
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28401

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $341	+0% $298	+5% $256	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $240	+0% $298	+5% $357	+10% $416
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $337	base $298	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
919 Castle St Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	578	$1,200	$2.08	15d	1	0.13mi
919 Castle St Wilmington, NC	2.0	2.0	688	$1,375	$2.00	22d	1	0.13mi
1102 Castle St Unit 201 Wilmington, NC	2.0	2.0	748	$1,450	$1.94	15d	1	0.21mi
1102 Castle St #306 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	587	$1,325	$2.26	22d	1	0.21mi
1102 Castle St Unit 202 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	587	$1,300	$2.21	22d	1	0.21mi
1108 Castle St Unit C Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	625	$1,375	$2.20	22d	1	0.23mi
1108 Castle St #112 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	22d	1	0.23mi
1124 Castle St Unit 206 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	598	$1,350	$2.26	22d	1	0.25mi
1124 Castle St Unit 201 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	686	$1,475	$2.15	22d	1	0.25mi
422 S 3rd St Wilmington, NC	2.0	1.0	734	$1,550	$2.11	15d	1	0.45mi
416 S Front St #7 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	425	$2,475	$5.82	22d	1	0.60mi
420 Market St Wilmington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0	935	$1,425	$1.52	15d	1	0.61mi
1704 Church St Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	525	$1,275	$2.43	15d	1	0.68mi
1704 Church St Unit 310 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	525	$1,250	$2.38	22d	1	0.68mi
1400 S 2nd St Wilmington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	956	$2,533	$2.65	15d	13	0.82mi
1519 Lake Branch Dr Wilmington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0	720	$1,125	$1.56	22d	1	0.83mi
304 N Front St Unit J Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	480	$1,500	$3.12	22d	1	0.98mi
10 Grace St #302 Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	600	$2,200	$3.67	22d	1	1.00mi
214 Red Cross St Wilmington, NC	1.0	1.0	524	$1,198	$2.29	15d	2	1.04mi
1625 S 17th St Wilmington, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,097	$2.28	15d	29	1.08mi
826 Hanover St Wilmington, NC	2.0	1.0	480	$1,500	$3.12	22d	1	1.09mi
2247 Wrightsville Ave Wilmington, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	753	$1,363	$1.81	15d	9	1.17mi
505 Alpine Dr Wilmington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$1,454	$1.44	15d	9	1.27mi
901 Nutt St Wilmington, NC	3.0	1.0–3.0	1112	$4,374	$3.93	15d	24	1.41mi
19 Harnett St Wilmington, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$3,709	$4.46	15d	18	1.49mi

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $345 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$885/yr (+$74/mo · 256.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$276
• After-tax cash flow: $3,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hanover County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703330
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 43.13/100
• National rank: #3081
• State rank: #61 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #8131

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, NC
• County: New Hanover County · 232,153 people
• City population: 215,355
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,007
• Household income: $57,968
• Rent vs Own: 58.9% rent · 41.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1696.0

Population outlook (New Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,517 people
• By 2030: 279,586 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 318,223 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 354,831 · +36.7%
• By 2075: 437,158 · +68.5%
• By 2100: 486,769 · +87.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Hanover

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.1 2016: R+4.1 2012: R+4.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.34%
• Current HPI: 293.4396
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Metro: Wilmington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $345 · -54.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.