251 Warnock Rd

Terlingua, TX 79852

$79,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $776/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $499/yr
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($499/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#875 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.