251 Warnock Rd · Terlingua, TX 79852

$79,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2013 Good condition 20 ac lot $19/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private Big Bend Getaway! Hilltop Cabin on 20 Beautiful Acres of the Big Bend Valley! Cabin includes Fireplace, Full Kitchen, Full indoor bathroom, solar setup, tankless Water heater & propane fixtures. Gorgeous Mountain Views w/ an endless Blanket of Stars! Easy Access, only 3 miles from Hwy 118, & only 40 minutes' drive to Big Bend National Park! As part of Terlingua Ranch, enjoy the amenities of the Lodge, Restaurant & Sparkling Pool! Call Skye for more information, or to schedule a tour.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• 20 beautiful acres
• Full indoor bathroom

Tags

• 20 BEAUTIFUL ACRES
• FULL KITCHEN
• FULL INDOOR BATHROOM
• SOLAR SETUP
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• PROPANE FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($499/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#875 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $12,296
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $40,106
• Equity at exit: $55,367

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79852

• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,900 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 100 DOM
16. 2026-02-19
    listed $79,900 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Private Big Bend Getaway! Hilltop Cabin on 20 Beautiful Acres of the Big Bend Valley! Cabin includes Fireplace, Full Kitchen, Full indoor bathroom, solar setup, tankless Water heater & propane fixtures. Gorgeous Mountain Views w/ an endless Blanket of Stars! Easy Access, only 3 miles from Hwy 118, & only 40 minutes' drive to Big Bend National Park! As part of Terlingua Ranch, enjoy the amenities of the Lodge, Restaurant & Sparkling Pool! Call Skye for more information, or to schedule a tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$745
• − Management: −$745
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable loss: −$808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$194
• After-tax cash flow: $693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Terlingua, TX, offers a good condition with modern amenities and a scenic location. It is ready for a cosmetic upgrade to enhance its curb appeal and attract more buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers
• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑
• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Terlingua

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #875
• US rank: #15764

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 614

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 4%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Listed $79,900 ODMLS