78 El Prado Ln

Oceanside, CA 92058

$249,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1968 · Manufactured · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,759/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $334/mo
• Annual: $4,005/yr
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.90%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#413 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, crime D, cost of living F.
• Oceanside Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #221 of 517 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.5% in Oceanside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,759/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4169% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.