6 La Noche Ct

Novato, CA 94945

$999,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax + insurance: −$878
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,462
• Net cashflow: $-619/mo
• Annual: $-7,427/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $279,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $999k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $890k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $696k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($969k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $696k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Ramon Elementary (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #443 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 429 students, 17% FRL); Sinaloa Middle (math 43% / reading 58%, grade C, #95 of 498 statewide, top 19%, 745 students, 24% FRL); San Marin High (math 41% / reading 63%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 1,144 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,960/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($108k/yr) (locally 357% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.