6 La Noche Ct · Novato, CA 94945

$999,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1969 8,799 sqft lot $428/sqft · 23% below area Est $1290k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Offered for the first time in over 50 years, 6 La Noche Court presents a rare opportunity to own a spacious, well-loved cul-de-sac home in the highly sought-after San Marin area of Novato. Built in 1969, this two-story residence offers 2,300+ sq ft of living space on an expansive 8,800 sq ft lot. With 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a versatile office/flex room, the layout is ideal for comfortable living. The main level features four bedrooms including one with an en-suite bath alongside a bright, open family room with abundant natural light and a cozy gas fireplace. A separate living room provides additional space to relax or entertain. The light and bright kitchen offers generous cabinet storage

Key facts

• 8,799 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with interior access; Garage faces front; Total parking for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 2 stories
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Private built-in pool with gas heat, fenced and pool sweep; Built-in spa / hot tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in refrigerator; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (main level includes bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Shower stalls and tub/shower combinations
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Office; Family room with skylight; Kitchen and family room combined; Skylights in kitchen; One fireplace with gas log
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $999k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-619 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $890k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $696k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $696k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Novato — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#211 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Novato Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #160 of 517 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Ramon Elementary (math 48% / reading 50%, grade D, #443 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 429 students, 17% FRL); Sinaloa Middle (math 43% / reading 58%, grade C, #95 of 498 statewide, top 19%, 745 students, 24% FRL); San Marin High (math 41% / reading 63%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 1,144 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,960/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($108k/yr) (locally 357% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($969k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $695,987 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,290,356
• List price: $999,000
• Delta: -22.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 La Noche Ct	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,332 (0%)	0mo	$1,110,000	$476	100
6 Katlas Ct	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,386 (+2%)	0mo	$1,520,000	$637	84
99 San Benito Way	0.50mi	5/3.0	2,343 (+0%)	4mo	$1,375,000	$587	73
2094 Center Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,337 (+0%)	4mo	$975,000	$417	64
508 San Marin Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,342 (+0%)	0mo	$1,167,800	$499	59
15 Arbor Cir	0.71mi	5/3.0	2,342 (+0%)	10mo	$1,210,000	$517	58
2108 Feliz Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (-14%)	7mo	$1,300,000	$650	58
340 San Carlos Way	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,430 (+4%)	9mo	$1,275,000	$525	55
36 Andreas Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,472 (+6%)	7mo	$1,400,000	$566	52
90 San Benito Way	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,140 (-8%)	8mo	$975,000	$456	51
29 Andreas Cir	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,559 (+10%)	1mo	$1,365,000	$533	47
26 Sotelo Way	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,196 (-6%)	8mo	$1,377,500	$627	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-201,681
• Equity at exit: $148,954

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-227,918
• Equity at exit: $86,375

Cash invested: $279,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94945

• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,239
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,078/yr
• Insurance: −$416
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,462
• Net cashflow: $-619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,743

Max offer price $889,660

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-336	+0% $-619	+5% $-902	+10% $-1,184
Rent	-10% $-1,169	-5% $-894	+0% $-619	+5% $-344	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-365	base $-619	+0.5pp $-878	+1.0pp $-1,141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $249,750
• Closing costs: $29,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Estrella Ct Novato, CA	4.0	3.0	2152	$5,750	$2.67	14d	1	0.51mi
752 Eucalyptus Ave Novato, CA	5.0	3.0	3256	$9,900	$3.04	0d	1	0.71mi
742 McClay Rd Novato, CA	5.0	3.5	3033	$6,500	$2.14	1d	1	0.86mi
13 Black Oak Ln Novato, CA	4.0	3.5	2952	$6,200	$2.10	23d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $999,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $999,000 Contingent (Show) 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $999,000 Contingent (Show) 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $999,000 Contingent (Show) 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $999,000 Contingent (Show) 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $999,000 Contingent (Show) 26 DOM
7. 2026-05-05
   listed $999,000 Active 1671-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,078 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,592 · $633/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,514/yr (+$293/mo · 86.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $83,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,960
• − Property taxes: −$4,078
• − Insurance: −$6,462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,681
• − Management: −$6,681
• − Depreciation: −$29,062
• Taxable loss: −$25,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Novato Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627720
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,396
• Composite: 41.06/100
• National rank: #3576
• State rank: #160 of 517 in CA

Livability — Novato

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #6675

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Novato, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 59,522
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,635
• Household income: $107,790
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -725.83%
• Current HPI: 266.2049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) $1,110,000 BAREIS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $999,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,078 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.