246 Bear Creek Dr

Bear Creek, AL 35543

$130,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,094/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-34/mo
• Annual: $-412/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-412/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#454 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Middle School (math 16% / reading 51%, grade F, #99 of 257 statewide, top 39%, 452 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.