246 Bear Creek Dr · Bear Creek, AL 35543

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1970

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bath home with great potential. This home offers a comfortable layout with a living room and a den. Large 2 car carport with a utility building. Also, has a back deck. While it could use some repairs and updates it & acirc; & euro; & trade; s move in ready. House is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Living room
• Carport
• Back deck

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DEN
• CARPORT
• UTILITY BUILDING
• BACK DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-412/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#454 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marion County (rural): math 20% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #56 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,378 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $28,875
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 High Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,178 (-14%)	15mo	$25,000	$21	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $13,491
• Equity at exit: $58,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $51,134
• Equity at exit: $90,084

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35543

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $125,035

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $11	+0% $-34	+5% $-79	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-78	+0% $-34	+5% $9	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-1	base $-34	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,050
• − Management: −$1,050
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,639
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$633
• After-tax cash flow: $221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion County
• NCES district ID: 0102310
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $32,048
• Composite: 27.69/100
• National rank: #6911
• State rank: #56 of 129 in AL

Livability — Bear Creek

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #454
• US rank: #23775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bear Creek, AL
• Population (ZIP): 1,086

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,759 people
• By 2030: 27,834 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 25,974 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 24,129 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 20,179 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 16,341 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Scottish 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+81.7) · D 8.8% · R 90.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -56.1pp · 2024: -81.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+81.7 2020: R+77.8 2016: R+76.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+56.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com