111 New Arnold St

Earlington, KY 42410

$44,000A-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · Built 1879 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $807/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $377/mo
• Annual: $4,518/yr
• Cap rate: 16.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.68%
• DSCR: 2.63
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($807 rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($304 loan paydown + $813 appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#175 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1879 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $44k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1879 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.